Bio-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Size, Share, Growth, and Industry Analysis, By Type (HEFA, G+FT, AtJ and Other), By Application (Commercial Aircraft, Military Aircraft and Other), and Regional Forecast to 2033

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BIO-BASED SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL (SAF) MARKET OVERVIEW

The global Bio-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market was valued at USD 1.59 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 1.99 billion in 2025, reaching USD 27.49 billion by 2033, with a projected CAGR of about 25.7% during the forecast period 2025-2033.

Emerging importantly as the global game changers of aviation industry strategy for environmental footprint mitigation in global aviation, the market for bio based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). SAF is produced from renewable, biological sustainable sources including used cooking oil, Agri-wastes, MSW and non-food crops such as algae. SAF has the potential to reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to fossil jet fuel, subject to the feedstock and production method [1]. Aviation is responsible for about 2–3% globally of the total CO₂ emissions, it is of course going to have to clean up its acts more urgently than ever. SAF through mandates, tax credits and emission trading schemes have been supported by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and other bodies of regulation. The policy frameworks combined with consumer and environmental groups mounting pressure are already moving the needle for SAF technologies to be adopted and commercialized.

With the market maturing, there are various technological pathways, such as Hydro processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), Fischer-Tropsch, and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) being scaled to widen the feed-stock conversion of aviation fuel pathways into closely-forced standards for jet fuel. The major fuel producers and also the major airlines are investing into purpose-built biorefineries plus long-term offtake contracts to secure more stable supply. The SAF market though has pile of challenges on its head. As production remains considerably expensive, unable to cross-the-horizon globally thus infrastructure limitations hampering large-scale deployment. Nevertheless, airline profitability, corporate sustainability targets and improved feedstock pathways & conversion efficiencies are predicted to support the growth of market over forecast period. Today, North America and Europe are the front-runners of the SAF development with their heavily industrialised areas and supportive regulatory set-ups, while Asia-Pacific is becoming more active driven by national governments and global alliances aiming at establishing regional supply chains. We have entered a new era of air travel, the bio-based SAF market is moving from niche to mainstream, serving as one of key in re-inventing sustainable flight.

COVID-19 IMPACT

Bio-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Industry Had a Negative Effect Due to Disrupted Air Travel and Delayed Investments during COVID-19 Pandemic

The global COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented and staggering, with the market experiencing lower-than-anticipated demand across all regions compared to pre-pandemic levels. The sudden market growth reflected by the rise in CAGR is attributable to the market’s growth and demand returning to pre-pandemic levels.

COVID-19 has affected the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market with two-sided impacts. Lockdowns, travel restrictions and generally weak consumer demand severely affected short-run global commercial aviation in an unprecedented fashion. The significant decrease in air travel activity led to a contemporaneous decline in jet fuel demand of which SAF was included causing bottlenecks for SAF procurement contracts, project investments and infrastructure expansion plans. Many biofuel producers went off-road to automotive markets or halted production entirely because of financing challenges and ambiguous demand forecasts. Cash flow drag for airlines also constrained their ability and willingness to lock in more expensive sustainable fuels. However, in the longer run, the pandemic was a wake-up call for the aviation industry to speed up decarbonization and work on increased resilience. During the recovery packages and green transition incentives, SAF was rediscovered as a key lever for sustainable recovery. Airlines also announced new sustainability targets and net-zero emission time-frames with considerable attention being paid to their road maps and SAF. This reshaped the market dynamics by turning upside down priority for environmental responsibility and painted a collaborative picture of both fuel producers, as well as airlines & governments in achieving SAF production scaling up in post-COVID recovery era.

LATEST TRENDS

Airline-Producer Partnerships to Accelerate SAF Commercialization to Drive Market Growth

One of the major trends fuelling the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market going forward is the increasing strategic partnerships among airlines and fuel producers to commercialize SAF as soon as possible. Regulatory bodies and global alliances moving regulatory decarbonization milestones fast, creating long-term offtake agreements with SAF producers so airlines have stable feedstock for low-emission fuels. Those partnerships are aimed at solving one of the biggest problems in industry capacity constraints by offering some level financial certainty and an incentive to build new biorefineries, and also bring innovation infeed stock. Also, such initiatives allow airlines in near term emissions reduction whilst future roadmap for their compliance with the enabling regulations mandating the proportion of SAF blending. These partnerships are also creating federations of research and development, where stakeholders investigate into the use of raw materials like algae and agricultural waste, municipal solid with an aim to decouple from current sources (used cooking oil) in part of the feedstock. In addition, fuel providers are collaborating closely with aviation suppliers to validate new production pathways and support the operational readiness of SAF in current aircraft and their infrastructure. That burgeoning ecosystem of cooperation not only speeds technology uptake, but says loud and clear to the aviation industry that its long-term commitment in sustainable fuel solutions is firmly anchored. This developing trend, as it progresses will undoubtedly drive increased market scalability by driving supply and cost reductions of SAF to create a secure, and sustainable aviation fuel supply chain.

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BIO-BASED SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL (SAF) MARKET SEGMENTATION

By Type

Based on type, the global market can be categorized into HEFA, G+FT, AtJ and other

• HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids): HEFA is the most mainstream production pathway for SAF, it converts fats oils and grease to fossil-based jet fuel all renewable. With a high degree of compatibility with current aircraft engines and infrastructure, it has massive market growth.

• G+FT (Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch): The gasification of biomass and waste feedstock followed by Fischer-Tropsch synthetic gas/pathway to produce so called bio-hydrocarbon. It allows a wide choice of feedstocks but needs more capital expenditure.

• AtJ (Alcohol-to-Jet): AtJ technology is capable of turning alcohols e. g. ethanol or butanol into jet fuel. Because it is attracting more attention for processing agricultural residues and cellulosic biomass, with efforts scale-up intend to provide cost advantages.

• Other: This includes still-developing routes such as pyrolysis and power-to-liquid processes, both in the embryonic stage but prospective diversification sources of SAF production in future.

By Application

Based on application, the global market can be categorized into commercial aircraft, military aircraft and other

• Commercial Aircraft: Largest application segments being powered by airlines commitment to reduce carbon emissions. Commercial aviation is increasingly blending SAF in-flight through blend standards and voluntary sustainability programs.

• Military Aircraft: SAF used in the military aviation sector for improvement of energy security as well as reduction in carbon footprint with performance constancy. A number of defence agencies have launched initiatives to standardize and agree upon SAF for their respective fleets.

• Other: This encompasses private jets, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), where SAF uptake is just coming on the horizon, and thus far is a relatively new less dominant segment when compared to commercial and the military.

MARKET DYNAMICS

Market dynamics include driving and restraining factors, opportunities and challenges stating the market conditions.                         

Driving Factors

Increasing Regulatory Support and Environmental Mandates to Boost the Market

The most important driver for the rising bio-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) market growth is the huge regulatory backing and global environmental standards. A number of policies at the initiative of governments, aviation regulatory bodies and international organizations to hasten decarbonization to clean jet fuels from fossil-based origins. These involve blending mandates that compel airlines to use a certain volume of SAF in their fuel mix, carbon pricing mechanisms and producer/consumer financial burden reducing tax relief for sustainable fuels. Moreover, emission trading schemes and carbon offset programs create the economic imperative for airlines to seek cleaner fuels as they begin to monetize reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. In aggregate, this regulatory landscape creates the critical mass of investment in SAF production infrastructure and drives innovation in feedstock diversification and conversion technologies. While North America, and Europe are front-runners by most ergo have seen one of the biggest increases in bio-based SAF market share in these regions as a result of stringent policies to enable SAF commercialisation. This regulatory landscape not only drives market growth, but also reinforces global sustainability yields by setting aviation sector goals in line with broader climate targets and increases stakeholder certainty enabling widespread adoption of SAF.

Rising Airline Commitments to Carbon Neutrality to Expand the Market

The bio-based sustainable aviation fuels market is expected to gain power since the number of airline commitments focus on carbon-neutral growth and net-zero emissions often sounds louder. Given the central role they play in global emissions, many of today leading airlines have set very far-reaching environmental targets to at least halve their carbon emissions by 2030, 2040 or until mid-century at the latest. Such commitments typically require SAF to be incorporated into an integrated strategy that overtakes or substitutes conventional jet fuel because of its substantial carbon saving capacity. Long-term offtake agreements among airlines and fuel producers offer financial certainty as well as incentives to build new biorefineries, lead additional work on scaling existing facilities to secure a long-term supply of SAF. In addition to buying agreements, airlines are cooperating with fuel developers on joint R&D projects to optimize feedstock utilization as well as drive down production costs. Increasing consumer, investor and regulatory pressure on the industry only adds to sense of urgency that airlines are under in order to put sustainable fuel solutions into practice. This increases market for SAF, with the growing demand coupled by this holistic focus on SAF are spurring technological advancements and market expansion as well as increasing OEM acceptance in the aviation industry as ending pathway for bio-based SAF integral part of future sustainable air travel.

Restraining Factor

High Production Costs and Feedstock Limitations to Potentially Impede Market Growth

One major inventory constraint on the expansion of bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market is high production costs of SAF relative to conventional jet fuel. Constraining factors, i.e., complex conversion processes and costly feedstocks along inelastic supply chains keep prices disproportionately high for SAF to be competitive without subsidies or regulatory support. Another difficulty in the way is feedstock availability and sustainability. For many bio-based feedstocks such as used cooking oil, agricultural residues, among others volumes are largely restricted by competition from other industries and must be priced to offset the higher cost. Additionally, land use change, land competition for food and environmental impacts of some biomass sources limit large-scale feedstock expansion. Each of these contributes to the added complexity of production and further complicates the ability for producers to scale up their operations effectively. This creates further impediments on market penetration through, significant capital investment required for new biorefineries and infrastructure and supply chain uncertainties. As long as production costs are high and there is none-to-generally accepted diversity of feedstock types the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market will face hurdles to reach large scale commercialization cost competitiveness vis-a-vis fossil-based jet fuels.

Growing Demand for Low-Carbon Aviation Solutions To Create Opportunity for the Product in the Market

Opportunity

Increasing attention on climate change mitigation by the international community sets a massive opening for bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market. With governments, regulators and industry stakeholders stepping up to increase their decarbonisation requirements in response to carbon emissions, there is a greater need for viable low carbon solutions in aviation; one of the most challenging sectors to de-carbonize. This growing need has thus opened up a good space for the construction and industrialisation of SAF technologies. Opportunities to unbundle feedstock diversification, including but not limited to algae, agricultural waste and non-food crops have provided solutions to address historical supply issues and environmental impacts. Indeed, more research and development investments are leading to increased production rates for competitive prices which laid foundation in competition with conventional jet fuel for SAF. This opportunity is compounded by the expectation from corporate sustainability commitments and the ascension of eco-friendly travel conscious consumers alike, encouraging airlines to start blending SAF in the fuel mix. On top of that, various ambitious incentives and subsidies, together with mandates from governments shaping at international as well as local levels ensure the catch-up needed for market participants. The confluence of these trends is forecast to drive the ramp-up of SAF production plants and supply chains worldwide. As a result, investments in bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market is projected boom with substantial opportunities to fuel producers and aviation companies seeking sustainable innovation.

Infrastructure and Supply Chain Limitations Could Be a Potential Challenge for Consumers

Challenge

A key challenge restraining the growth of the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market is the limited infrastructure and complex supply chain required for large-scale SAF production and distribution. Existing fuel supply systems and airport facilities are primarily designed for conventional fossil-based jet fuels, and adapting them to handle SAF requires significant investment and coordination among multiple stakeholders. The lack of widespread SAF blending and storage infrastructure at airports limits the ability to efficiently distribute and utilize sustainable fuels. Additionally, securing a consistent and sustainable supply of diverse feedstocks remains challenging due to geographical constraints, seasonal variability, and competition from other industries such as bioenergy and chemicals. Further complicating the challenge are the high capital expenditures needed to build and retrofit biorefineries capable of producing SAF at commercial volumes. Regulatory uncertainties and the evolving landscape of certification standards for SAF also contribute to hesitancy among potential investors and end users. These factors create bottlenecks that slow the pace of market adoption despite growing demand. Until infrastructure upgrades, streamlined supply chains, and standardized regulatory frameworks are more broadly implemented, the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market will face significant obstacles in achieving widespread, cost-effective deployment.

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BIO-BASED SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL (SAF) MARKET REGIONAL INSIGHTS

• North America 

North America leads the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market, driven primarily by the United States bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market. The United States has established strong regulatory frameworks including blending mandates, tax incentives, and funding programs that encourage production and adoption of SAF. Major U.S.-based airlines have set aggressive sustainability targets, creating consistent demand and fostering collaborations with domestic fuel producers. The country’s advanced technological capabilities, abundant feedstock availability, and investment in renewable energy infrastructure further strengthen the United States bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market share, securing its position as a dominant player globally.

• Europe

In Europe, the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market share is expanding rapidly, supported by strict environmental policies such as the European Green Deal and Fit for 55 initiatives targeting aviation emissions reduction. European governments are providing subsidies and facilitating public-private partnerships that boost SAF production and innovation. The presence of leading airlines and fuel manufacturers in the region accelerates market adoption, making Europe a key growth hub for bio-based SAF. These factors significantly enhance Europe’s overall bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market share.

• Asia

The Asia-Pacific bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market share is growing steadily as countries like China, Japan, and South Korea ramp up investments in sustainable fuel technologies. Although the market is smaller compared to North America and Europe, increasing environmental regulations, government support, and expanding aviation demand are driving growth. The region’s focus on developing infrastructure and feedstock sources is expected to expand the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market substantially in the near future.

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Key Industry Players Shaping the Market Through Innovation and Market Expansion

Key industry players are actively driving innovation and scaling production to advance the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market. Leading companies are investing heavily in expanding production capacity, developing new feedstock sources, and improving conversion technologies to enhance fuel efficiency and reduce costs. These efforts include forming strategic partnerships with airlines and governments to secure long-term offtake agreements and foster policy support. Companies are also focusing on sustainability certifications and lifecycle emission reductions to ensure environmental compliance and market acceptance. Continuous research and development initiatives aim to diversify feedstock options, including waste oils, agricultural residues, and non-food biomass, addressing supply constraints. Through these coordinated efforts, industry leaders are accelerating commercial-scale production and adoption of SAF, positioning the market for significant growth and helping the aviation sector meet stringent carbon reduction targets globally.

List of Top Bio-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Companies

• Neste (Finland)
• World Energy (United States)
• TotalEnergies (France)
• Honeywell (United States)
• SkyNRG (Netherlands)
• LanzaJet (United States)
• Swedish Biofuels AB (Sweden)
• Eni (Italy)
• Virent (United States)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT

March 2025: Neste (Finland) announced the commissioning of a new renewable jet fuel production facility designed to significantly increase its bio-based sustainable aviation fuel output. This state-of-the-art plant incorporates advanced technology to utilize a broader range of sustainable feedstocks, including waste oils and agricultural residues, aiming to reduce production costs and improve fuel yield. The expansion is expected to boost Neste’s overall capacity, enabling the company to meet growing demand from airline partners committed to carbon neutrality. This development reinforces Neste’s leadership position in the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market and supports the industry’s broader transition toward sustainable aviation solutions.

REPORT COVERAGE

The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market, covering key aspects such as market dynamics, trends, and growth drivers. It includes detailed segmentation by type—covering HEFA, G+FT, AtJ, and other production pathways—and by application, including commercial aircraft, military aircraft, and others. The study also offers in-depth regional insights focusing on North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, highlighting market shares, regulatory frameworks, and investment patterns. Additionally, the report examines the impact of global events and policy developments on market growth, alongside competitive landscape analysis featuring leading industry players and their strategic initiatives.

Furthermore, the report evaluates technological advancements, supply chain challenges, and sustainability considerations affecting the market. It assesses market restraints such as high production costs and feedstock limitations, while identifying emerging opportunities driven by regulatory support and increasing airline commitments to carbon neutrality. The coverage also includes recent industrial developments, collaborations, and innovations that influence market dynamics. Overall, the report serves as a vital resource for stakeholders, providing actionable insights to navigate the evolving bio-based sustainable aviation fuel market and capitalize on growth prospects.